On Thursday, 17 September 2020, Governor Lesetja Kganyago read the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement. We are happy to see that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held it’s key lending, or repo, rate at 3,5%. A low repo rate is good news for both consumer spending levels and for businesses looking to borrow money to invest in growth opportunities.
However, on a more cautionary note the SARB also revised its 2020 GDP forecast downwards, indicating a contraction of 8.2% for the year compared to its early prediction of a 7.3% decrease. This revised forecast is now more in line with other external organisations such the OECD. According to the Dailymaverick.co.za, “The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts an 11.5% contraction for the South African economy in 2020, the biggest among 19 countries surveyed in Africa. A GDP contraction indicates a potential decline in industrial production and retail sales, and could lead a drop in real personal income.
The SARB also indicated that inflation is set to remain within it’s target range off 3% to 6%. The Monetary Policy Committee statement said, “The central bank’s headline consumer price inflation forecast averages 3.3% in 2020 and is lower than previously forecast at 4% in 2021 and at 4.4% in 2022.”
During the MPC meeting, it was also brought to light that the inflation rate “is expected to be well contained over the medium-term,” due to the slow recovery and economic contraction.
This suggests that the SARB has the ability to reduce rates even further but the statement was clear in the fact that the bank’s “Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) indicates no further repo rate cuts in the near term and two rate increases in the third and fourth quarters of 2021.”
With the country moving to Level 1 in a few days, the hope is that the further increase in commercial activity will help grow the overall economy and put money back in consumers pockets.
With the record low repo rate set to remain at this level for the foreseeable future, and inflation also expected to remain steady, now is a good time for business owners to look at accessing additional capital to invest in the future of their business.